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Aduhelm demand is 'almost negligible,' Ginkgo's volatile winter, & Amgen's bet on machine learning

 

The Readout Damian Garde & Meghana Keshavan

Good morning, all. Damian Garde here. Early-year biotech optimism took a hit yesterday as the industry's bellwether index fell to its lowest point in 15 months. There's always 2023.

Demand for Aduhelm is ‘almost negligible’

Despite the FDA’s approval and months of marketing from Biogen, physicians around the country have resoundingly refused to prescribe Aduhelm, the company’s hotly debate treatment for Alzheimer’s disease.

STAT’s Nicholas Florko identified 15 university-affiliated medical centers that have decided not to offer the treatment to patients. Vizient, the organization that negotiates supply contracts on behalf of more than 95% of the nation’s academic medical centers, estimates that members are ordering just one to five vials of the medicine each day. The demand “is so, so small that it’s almost negligible,” said Steven Lucio, Vizient’s senior principal of pharmacy solutions.

Perhaps most alarming for Biogen is the fact that some hospitals have no plans to change their stance on Aduhelm even if Medicare decides to cover the drug for a wide group of patients.

Read more.

Being Ginkgo means dealing with volatility

Back in October, the much-discussed synthetic biology company Ginkgo Bioworks lost about $3 billion in market value after a lengthy short report called it, among other things, “a Frankenstein mash-up of the worst frauds of the last 20 years.” There were lots of tweets and a few CNBC appearances, but within a week, Ginkgo’s stock was hitting all-time highs and everyone moved on.

Cut to this week and Ginkgo has lost 20% of its value since the start of 2022. The company is down more than 50% from its October heights despite announcing little in the way of market-moving news. 

What’s becoming clear is that volatility is likely going to be a fact of life for Ginkgo. The bull case for Ginkgo Bioworks is that it can become a sort of Amazon Web Services for biology, using customized cells to manufacture drugs, foods, building materials, and whatever else you can imagine. The bear case is that it’s wildly over-hyped and that no one wants a chair grown from yeast. It might take years for either side of that argument to decisively prevail.

Ginkgo has, as of Sept. 30, $1.7 billion in cash and, presumably, maximal confidence in its vision of the future. But as long as the debate persists, Ginkgo will be prone to multibillion-dollar swings in investor sentiment.

Amgen bets $50 million on machine learning

Yesterday, Amgen said it signed a research collaboration with a machine-learning startup founded by Flagship Pioneering, aimed at discovering new protein-based drugs. 

Under terms of the deal, Amgen is paying $50 million to Generate Biomedicines to fund the initial research on five targets that address several disease areas — all undisclosed. Amgen will make additional payments to Generate Biomedicines based on the advancement and success of the research programs. 

Amgen already has in-house expertise in protein engineering, but R&D chief David Reese said the the goal of the Generate Biomedicines partnership is to use its artificial intelligence capabilities to shave time off the discovery process and generate potential drug candidates that have more predictable clinical behavior and can be manufactured more easily.

So is Novartis going to buy Alnylam or what?

This morning, global pharmaceutical giant Novartis said it plans to work with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals on an RNA-based medicine that might rescue patients from the need for liver transplant. The idea, which is in the earliest stages of development, would be a coup if it works. But on Wall Street, the partnership is likely to only amplify the speculation and wishful thinking that Novartis will soon buy Alnylam outright.

It began last fall, when Novartis cashed in its stake in Roche for about $20 billion, and escalated after Bloomberg reported Alnylam was a “prime potential target” for acquisition. Investors have framed ensuing developments through the lens of will they/won’t they. When longtime Alnylam CEO John Maraganore disclosed his plans to step down at the end of 2021, the stock went down, as it suggested no deal was in the works. When Novartis’ chief financial officer said the company was looking at “bolt-on” deals, Alnylam shares rose.

With that in mind, the companies’ latest partnership could feed either interpretation. Novartis’ decision to work with Alnylam could be evidence of the pair’s deepening scientific relationship in the runup to a merger. Or it could signal that Novartis is happy to treat Alnylam as a close collaborator and feels no urgency to consume the company whole. Today’s trading will be instructive.

More reads

  • Blueprint Medicines seeks ‘continuity, not change’ in CEO transition. STAT+
  • Groundbreaking biotech gets closer to saving kids with a rare disease. San Francisco Business Times
  • Catalent CEO John Chiminski to step down this summer after 12 years at the helm. Endpoints
  • The case for Califf: Don’t let politics prevent confirmation of best FDA commissioner candidate. STAT

Thanks for reading! Until tomorrow,

@damiangarde
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Thursday, January 6, 2022

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