| |   | Hello, everyone. Damian here with a preview of some weighty earnings calls, an idea for diversifying clinical trials, and an update on a curious saga in Alzheimer's disease. | | | ‘Great quarter, guys. About that $40 billion …’ Merck and Seagen, reportedly in a weeks-long discourse about merging, will spend today either extolling the virtues of a future together or no-commenting through repetitive questions about what’s taking so long.
That’s because Merck will host a quarterly earnings call at 8 a.m. ET, and Seagen will do the same at 4:30 p.m. ET. And, according to a series of stories from the Wall Street Journal, Merck is keen to acquire Seagen for an amount exceeding $200 a share, or more than $40 billion. It once planned to nail down an agreement by today, according to the Journal, but that timeline slipped. Seagen’s shares have traded up and down according to investors’ sense of whether a deal was coming. They closed at about $178 yesterday, up 6% since news of the delay.
If a buyout agreement doesn’t materialize today, which seems like the likeliest outcome, Merck’s Q&A with analysts promises to be a masterclass in vagary and avoidance. Seagen, which is speaking publicly for the first time since its former CEO's arrest, will face a similar challenge. | How long will Pfizer’s Covid success last? Pfizer markets the U.S.’s most successful vaccine and treatment for Covid-19, products that are expected to help the company make a record $100 billion in revenue this year. But Wall Street remains wary of unpredictable shifts in the pandemic, making the Pfizer’s earnings disclosure later today a bellwether event for companies competing in Covid.
Analysts expect Pfizer to make about $26 billion in the fourth quarter, due in large part to Comirnaty, its Covid vaccine, and Paxlovid, its oral antiviral. Any sizable deviation from that number is likely to reverberate, and doubly so if Pfizer updates its full-year guidance in response to changes in demand for its pandemic products.
Pfizer’s earnings come just days after the White House convened experts and executives to discuss the potential for second-generation vaccines against Covid. Pfizer and BioNTech said yesterday they had begun a clinical trial of an updated vaccine that would create broader immunity. | In-depth analysis of biopharma and the life sciences Sign up for STAT+ to access in-depth analysis of biopharma, inside intelligence from Capitol Hill, the latest on medicine tech, and more. Subscribe today to start your free 30-day trial. | The Cassava saga takes a reportedly criminal turn Cassava Sciences, the company under SEC investigation for alleged data fraud, is now the subject of a criminal probe, Reuters reported yesterday.
The reported investigation relates to Cassava’s treatment for Alzheimer’s disease and its purportedly positive data in an early-stage trial. Outside experts dismissed the results as overblown, and then a pair of physicians who were betting against the company’s stock detailed what appeared to be misrepresentations in Cassava’s supporting literature.
In a statement, CEO Remi Barbier did not directly dispute the Reuters story, saying only that the company had already disclosed that “certain government agencies had asked for corporate information” and adding that none of those agencies had informed the company of any wrongdoing. Barbier has maintained that Cassava’s data are accurate. | More reads - AbbVie is scolded by a trade group over sales rep ‘strategically loitering’ in a hospital. STAT
- Illumina, Grail deal faces EU antitrust veto. Reuters
- Can we really get better Covid vaccines? There are big hurdles, but some hope. STAT
| Thanks for reading! Until tomorrow,  | | | |
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