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Amylyx's evolution, Illumina's plea for patience, & guilt by association

 

The Readout

Hello, everyone. Damian here with the latest on Amylyx Pharmaceuticals' evolution, Illumina's redemption tour, and the state of the SPAC boom.

The next test for Amylyx

Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, one week removed from winning FDA approval for a new treatment for ALS, needs money to make the most of its fortune. And just how much it’s able to raise will speak volumes as to Wall Street’s faith in the young company.

Last night, Amylyx filed to sell 6 million shares in a public offering. The company has traded at around $30 a share since last week’s approval, but the actual price of the offering will be subject to negotiation with Amylyx’s underwriters, which will depend entirely on how investors feel about the commercial prospects of Relyvrio, its ALS drug.

Amylyx, a startup born out of dorm room research, is making the historically difficult transition from developing a drug to actually selling it. The drug, which will be available in the U.S. within the next six weeks, carries a list price of about $158,000 per year, a figure that has already drawn criticism from ALS patients and advocates who previously supported Amylyx.

Can one drug doom another?

KalVista Pharmaceuticals saw its valuation cut in half yesterday after the company terminated a mid-stage trial of a rare disease medicine, news that invited investors to fret over the future of a different, more advanced drug.

The news is that KVD824, an oral treatment for hereditary angioedema, led to alarming elevations in liver enzymes for seven people in a 33-patient study, KalVista said, a hallmark signal that a treatment is causing liver damage. The company plans to wait for further analysis of the data before deciding whether KVD824 has a future.

The dramatic stock reaction likely relates to sebetralstat, another hereditary angioedema treatment now in Phase 3 development. KalVista said it hasn’t seen any similar liver issues in studies of sebetralstat, noting that it is “a distinct compound from KVD824.” That’s true, but both medicines are aimed at the same biological target, raising the perceived risk that an emerging safety concern could eventually derail sebetralstat.

Wall Street is ready give Illumina another chance

Illumina has had a rough 2022, between a painful reduction in expected revenues and the slow-moving disaster that is its acquisition of the cancer testing firm Grail. But after the glitzy unveiling of a new technology and signs management is willing to give up on Grail, Wall Street is starting to see green shoots.

Illumina’s share price rose nearly 10% yesterday after the company held its first investor day since 2014, promising a brighter future in which the core business would grow at roughly 15% per year and its soon-to-launch machine, which promises to bring the cost of reading a whole human genome from about $600 to $200, would drive an increase in demand.

Analysts from Cowen and SVB Securities were particularly focused on Grail, which Illumina bought for $8 billion in 2021 and has been burning cash to keep at arm's length in the name of appeasing antitrust regulators. Management finally conceded that it’s looking at the possibility of selling or spinning out the company, a prospect that would end a costly period of limbo and be warmly received by investors.

Another whale backs out of SPACs

Billionaire investor Bill Foley is winding down his two blank-check companies, planning to return more than $2 billion to investors as the clock runs out for hundreds of SPACs.

As Bloomberg reports, Foley’s two SPACs, or special-purpose acquisition companies, had until March to find merger targets but have decided to close by the end of the year after considering hundreds of potential deals. The news comes two weeks after Chamath Palihapitiya, dubbed the SPAC king after founding a handful of blank-check companies, said he was winding down two SPACs that raised a combined $1.6 billion after failing to find desirable targets. Earlier this year, Bill Ackman made a similar declaration of defeat on the largest-ever SPAC, returning roughly $4 billion to investors.

There are still more than 500 SPACs in search of merger targets, many with expiration dates in the next six months. 

More reads

  • Ginkgo Bioworks buys two small biotech companies, Boston Globe
  • Pfizer needs to prove it’s ready to move on from Covid-19, Bloomberg
  • Vir Biotech gets U.S. funding for flu-prevention antibody, Reuters

Thanks for reading! Until tomorrow,

@damiangarde
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Wednesday, October 5, 2022

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