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Axios Vitals: Alarm bells in China

Plus: The booming senior care market | Monday, November 28, 2022
 
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Axios Vitals
By Tina Reed · Nov 28, 2022

Welcome back from the long holiday weekend, Vitals readers.

🐕 1 fun thing: A company aims to ultimately create a version of "Apple Health, but for dogs."

  • The company, called Joipaw, is taking reservations for a video game system that it says will "unleash your dog's cognitive potential," Axios' Jennifer A. Kingson writes.

Today's newsletter is 844 words or a 3.5-minute read.

 
 
1 big thing: Alarm bells in China
Illustration of a pattern of gray virus cells with one lighting up in red

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

China is facing an increasingly precarious situation as new COVID cases soar and the population seems to be hitting a breaking point with the government's stringent zero-tolerance policies.

Why it matters: The world's most populous nation has massive vulnerabilities heading into this winter, starting with the fact the vast majority of its population has yet to be exposed to the virus and has little 'natural immunity.'

  • China's vaccines didn't work well compared to those distributed in the West, and the government refused to approve foreign vaccines and doesn't have a version to combat Omicron.
  • Vaccine uptake was particularly low among the elderly.
  • And now, public outrage over new COVID lockdown restrictions has fueled rare protests, Axios' Herb Scribner writes, with residents demanding the government lift restrictions quickly and some calling for President Xi Jinping's resignation.

State of play: Overall, China's number of reported COVID cases and COVID deaths are far lower than other nations, but there have been recent reported spikes in the number of infections and some new deaths.

  • It came after the Chinese government announced some easing of its zero-COVID policy, such as reducing mass testing and quarantine requirements, earlier this month.

Reality check: China's doctors have warned that the health care system isn't prepared for the huge outbreak likely to follow any easing of public health measures, Axios' Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian writes.

  • That includes worries the nation doesn't have enough ICU bed capacity to handle such circumstances, according to the Financial Times.

The bottom line: China's zero-COVID policy has kept disease spread relatively low compared to the rest of the world.

  • But even as the societal and economic consequences of shutdowns become apparent, it faces a very difficult path ahead in unwinding strict public health policies.

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2. New business models for senior care

Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios

 

Driven in large part by the growth of Medicare Advantage, a number of startups are vying to create the next value-based care model for senior care in patients' homes, Axios' Sarah Pringle reports.

Why it matters: As we recently reported in our Elder Care Crisis Deep Dive, there is a shortfall of enough cash and caregivers to handle the massive amount of aging baby boomers reaching their senior years.

State of play: Senior care-related startups commanding fresh rounds of investor funding this year include Upward Health, Biofourmis, ConcertoCare, and Vytalize Health.

  • "The cool thing about value-based care?" General Atlantic managing director Robb Vorhoff said. "There's hundreds of business models."

Reality check: Scaling remains a challenge for new models looking to shake up the senior care market.

  • "There are a lot of options out there that you don't know about," Town Hall Venture's Andy Slavitt says. "Some are the best-kept secrets; some are not worth knowing about."

Be smart: While most elderly adults would prefer to age in place, there is still a need for institutional care settings like nursing homes, which presents its own major challenges, Sarah writes.

Related: As Gen X and Boomers age, they confront living alone (New York Times)

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3. Humira biosimilars could be boon for PBMs

Biosimilars for AbbVie's Humira — one of the world's most-used drugs — are coming to the U.S. market in 2023, and that could mean big bucks for the nation's largest drug middlemen, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Driving the news: Biosimilars drive down the costs of drugs for consumers, similar to how generics might, by offering near-identical versions of biologics.

  • Pharmacy benefit managers, or PBMs, are also likely to greatly benefit from Humira's biosimilars because of how they are distributed through specialty pharmacies, per the WSJ.

Between the lines: More than 70% of total branded sales going off patent through 2025 will be covered by pharmacy-benefit managers and dispensed directly by their specialty pharmacies to patients, the WSJ wrote, citing an analysis by Morgan Stanley.

  • That will give PBMs "greater influence on how demand is shaped," per Morgan Stanley, and thus help them demand greater rebates from drug makers, WSJ writes.

Yes, but: Even with a number of companies waiting in the wings to offer Humira biosimilars, many PBMs may be slow put Humira into more expensive tiers or booting the biologic off their formularies due to consumer demand, Axios' Bob Herman reported in February.

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A message from PhRMA

Patients are frustrated
 
 

New data from IQVIA reveal patients with deductibles and coinsurance are more likely to abandon their medicines than patients with copays.

The reason: Insurers and their PBMs shift the costs of covered medicines onto their patients. That's not fair.

Learn more.

 
 
4. Quote du jour

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. Photo: Fabrice Coffrini/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

 
"The paradox of the pandemic is that while vaccines against COVID-19 were developed in record time and deployed in the largest vaccination campaign in history, routine immunization programs were badly disrupted, and millions of kids missed out on life-saving vaccinations against deadly diseases like measles."
— WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a statement warning that measles poses "an imminent threat" to the world.
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5. While you were weekending
Illustration of a desk on a beach under a palm tree.

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

 

👉 Former Surgeon General Jerome Adams said he struggled to find a job — and raise awareness around his wife's cancer — after serving under former President Donald Trump. (Washington Post)

👀 Outgoing NIAID Director Anthony Fauci said over the weekend he "has a completely open mind" when it comes to considering the COVID lab leak theory. (Politico)

🎂 Happy Birthday to Omicron, the variant that keeps surprising virologists. (New York Times)

🐓 The avian flu outbreak in the U.S. is the worst on record with over 50 million birds dead. (Axios)

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A message from PhRMA

Data show PBMs shift costs to patients
 
 

Costly out-of-pocket expenses tied to deductible and coinsurance requirements are a leading concern for patients with commercial insurance.

New IQVIA data break down how insurers and their PBMs are impacting how patients access and afford their medicines.

 

👋 Thanks for reading, and thanks to senior editor Adriel Bettelheim and copy editor Nick Aspinwall for the edits. Did someone forward this email to you? Here's how to sign up.

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