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Happy Tuesday, Hospitalogists!
Today we dive into the hospital Q2 earnings analysis presented by yours truly. |
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The most important news from the week |
Public Hospitals' Q2: Executive Summary |
Margins expanded for those not named CHS, labor is still behaving and stable, while volume was fine…but decelerated from 2024 rates. Overall the headline for hospital Q2 operations is operating leverage: lower contract labor, smarter staffing, targeted service-line growth (ortho, cardiology) set against a policy cloud with plenty of uncertainty as analysts asked pointed questions.
Payors are testing the fence (denials, MA behavior), and providers are responding with tougher contracting, denial analytics, AI documentation tools, and a willingness to walk from bad exchange deals (in Ardent's case). Given Tenet's strong outperformance, outpatient migration and ambulatory alignment remains the growth vector while hospitals are honing in on acuity and high-dollar subspecialist work in the inpatient setting. |
One Big Beautiful Bill is One Big Ugly Headache for Providers: Every operator framed OBBA as a long fuse, not a 2025 event. The near-term impact is de minimis; the material bite ramps late decade as Medicaid supplemental dollars and provider-tax mechanics change. Everyone has the same playbook: lobby for fixes, rely on grandfathering where available, harvest what benefits there are (e.g., bonus depreciation/interest deductibility), and accelerate internal "resiliency" savings ahead of the cuts. For each public operator, total projected hits to EBITDA vary but top out at an estimated ~15% cut for Ardent (most exposed) to ~5% for Tenet (least exposed). Labor Market - from Crisis to Craft for the Big For-Profit's: Wage inflation has normalized; contract labor is back to rounding-error territory for the largest operators. Everybody is running leaner staffing models aided by scheduling analytics, internal float pools, and aggressive recruitment pipelines. Margin tailwind persists as agency hours remain low. Virtual nursing is no longer a science project. Ardent reported a ~$30 savings per patient-day and a 600 bps drop in voluntary nurse turnover on units using the model. ACA Dynamics: the 2026 Wildcard: All operators noted favorable payor mix, rising acuity in Q2 in high-impact segments (ortho, joints, spine, cardiac). The question on everyone's minds is…what happens in 2026? Hospitals were unable to quantify near-term headwinds on earnings calls, most notably ACA subsidy expiration, and what the subsequent effect on payor mix might be. In reality, expect to see a mix shift back to 2019 before subsidies absent near-term Congressional action. Those ACA members will either (1) go uninsured/self-pay or (2) move to employer-sponsored insurance. These dynamics will be local market specific. Technology and AI: RCM automation (CDI, coding, scribing, denial prediction), labor optimization (smart staffing, virtual nursing), and digital front-door expansion are no longer "innovation slides"; they're margin programs as health systems inch…ever so closer…to consumerism. What are the conversations happening behind closed doors? - Ongoing rumblings about 340B changes
- CMS' proposed move to eliminate the inpatient only list - how are health systems responding to this?
- Labor - are we at a trough or do we continue to see efficiency gains?
- AI - how can I document and code as much as possible before payors catch up?
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HCA: the Bellwether with some Q2 Blips? |
Tenet: Credit where Credit is Due with USPI |
UHS: Behavioral Pricing Power, Acute Drags |
CHS: The Public Hospital Laggard |
Ardent: Shrugging off Policy Headwinds |
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Random personal anecdotes and musings from me |
The other day, I had had a long day and came home to a hot, humid afternoon (that Texas heat is brutal in August). My 2-year old son seems absolutely impervious to weather, and so he asked to go outside and play in the dirt - one of his favorite activities. My wife and I both told him he could but that he would probably be out there alone since it was hot and I was tired.
But then he went out there, and after a couple minutes of preparing dinner, I looked up and saw him sitting there, digging alone and I couldn't take it. I needed to be out there with him, enjoying these moments. So I did. Screw the heat. And when he saw me coming, a smile erupted across his face and he was thrilled to see me joining him. There's obviously a lesson in this moment, but I am going to keep doing a better job of being there for my son and making every moment count. I hope you guys all do the same. |
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Thanks for the read! Let me know what you thought by replying back to this email. — Blake |
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