| Failure to successfully launch The Gambler's Fallacy holds that, if you've called heads five times in a row and called wrong each time, the next toss is sure to be heads. Stay the course and your luck will change. Statisticians, of course, know this to be false. One of the main reasons 'the house always wins' is that gamblers often dupe themselves. Currently, more pharma launches miss expectations (58%) than meet or surpass them (42%), and yet pharma launch teams keep tossing the same coin in the hopes it will land on heads next time. Coin flips One of the key contributors to that 58% failure rate is that pharma companies have struggled to gain a complete understanding of complex, fast-moving markets, which is further intensified by the industry's move toward rare disease, oncology, and other specialty markets. Even when an organization has developed a good idea of what the market wants and needs, it's not always possible to act on that knowledge. Misalignment between medical and commercial teams interrupts the flow of insights and prevents teams from acting on market signals in a timely fashion. Strategic decisions that should be made confidently and informed by market signals become coin flips. Changing the odds AI has the ability to skew the odds in launch teams' favor. Commercial applications of artificial intelligence offer the greatest opportunity for value creation in the pharmaceutical industry, and are expected to generate 18-30 billion dollars of value annually. AI can reduce the launch failure rate by delivering accurate, actionable market signals in real time, enabling confident, informed decision-making. The pharmaceutical industry has been understandably slow to adopt AI tools for a variety of reasons. It's important to make a distinction between open-source LLMs such as ChatGPT, Copilot, and launch AI solutions that are specifically built and tailored for the pharmaceutical industry. Imagine the power to act faster, more decisively, and with greater confidence in your decisions than your competitors. Now that would be a win. — By MedCity Influencer Lance Hill |
No comments